A highly instructive account of different methods for projecting health trends, forecasting changes in the incidence of disease, and predicting future demands on health resources. The book, which is the culmination of a study involving more than 60 epidemiologists and statisticians, provides both an inventory of available projection methods and a practical guide to their use at various levels in different countries. Emphasis in placed on the use of these relatively new methods as tools for efficient and exact health planning. The book features 23 chapters organized into four main parts. The first three parts cover projections of health status, projections of health resources and their use, and interactive models and other systems approaches. Specific applications include the prediction of cancer incidence and prevalence, prediction of mortality from cardiovascular disease, and projections of the number of hospital admissions and beds. Where possible, sufficient information on projection methods is given to enable the reader to apply the same approach in a different situation. Chapters in the final part examine the application of projections and forecasts to health planning in different European countries.

DC.EURO

eng.

WHODOC

WHO monograph

4